Labour heading for electoral meltdown

This blog has been predicting a Tory landslide at the next election now for a very long time. I say this not because Cameron’s Tories are particularly popular – they are not – but because Gordon Brown is universally despised. The result in Norwich North confirms this. If Brown remains Labour Leader, we are looking at a Tory majority at the next election of at least 100 and possibly up to 200.

For the last few months, polls have shown Labour’s vote in the 23-27% region. The last time Labour polled this poorly at a General Election was in 1983, when they won just over 200 seats. As in 1983, the Tories will be the main beneficiaries taking the bulk of suburban England. But Labour’s woes will be worse next year – seats that were totally safe in 1983 will no longer be in 2010. The Lib Dems have demonstrated they can now beat Labour in the cities, while in Scotland and Wales, the SNP and Plaid can win in what were Labour heartlands. If Labour poll in the 20’s in 2010, we could be looking at a Labour meltdown of 1931 proportions.

The more realistic folk in Labour circles hope that if they can push their vote up to the low 30’s, they could possibly force a hung parliament. Usually, you would expect the Government of the day to galvanise support as you approach the election. But this time, if there is any shift, I feel it will move against the Government for the following reasons:

1. The economic conditions will deteriorate between now and the election. While we may be seeing the first green shoots of recovery – with the FTSE 100 rallying - the factors that matter to ordinary people will only get worse. Unemployment will continue to rise for most of the year and will be at the 3 million mark at the time of the election. Inflation will also start to re-appear (partly prompted the fuel levy increase in September and the VAT reversal on 1 January 2010).

2. Cameron will destroy Brown in the presidential style elections we now have in the UK. Brown has no positive attributes to promote to the people. Cameron, on the other hand, has a strong, slick team around him that will be totally prepared for the coming election.

3. The Tory key seats strategy is very well organised and resourced – Labour’s grassroots organisation, on the other hand, is in most areas non-existent. This could be even more important at the next election when there is a huge opportunity through local campaigning to exploit local anger against the MPs expense scandal.

Some Lib Dem blogs have been despondent about the Lib Dems poor showing in Norwich. This is irrelevant. By-elections are all about a party establishing themselves as the main challenger – this was always going to be the Tories in Norwich.

The problem for the Lib Dems at the next election, however, is that many Lib Dem MPs were elected in 1997 as the more acceptable face of the anti-Tory coalition. This time, the voters will be voting against Labour and its policy agenda. The Party desperately needs to shed itself of its left leaning social democratic image. It seems that the Party leadership is beginning to recognise this. This week, Clegg announced plans to drop spending commitments on tuition fees and free care for the elderly. Let’s hope that Clegg can drag the Party in a rightward direction. If he can’t, the Lib Dems will go the same way as Labour at the election.